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England will defeat Egypt despite leaky defence

Egypt are a team for the big occasion, as they'd surely show if they ever actually qualified for a World Cup. They haven't done so since 1990, when they last faced England, who handed them their only defeat, 1-0 in the final group game, with Mark Wright the goalscorer.

In addition to winning a third straight African Nations Cup in January, Egypt impressed in their toughest tests at last year's Confederations Cup, losing 4-3 to a last-gasp penalty against eventual winners Brazil and beating Italy 1-0, in what was their last meeting with a European opponent.

England look short at [1.41] but it's not necessarily a good idea to lay them - the Three Lions have won nine of their ten home games under Fabio Capello, including each of the last seven.

Instead, the best bet is surely to back against England keeping a clean sheet at [1.92], or alternatively to bet on both teams scoring at [2.04].

Despite the inclination to automatically assume that Italian coach equals defensive stability, England have conceded in five of their last eight matches at Wembley, and recent events should ensure that they are shakier than ever tonight.

Nobody knows who the first-choice keeper is, because David James has represented his country just once in 11 months, and while Joe Hart has been the form candidate, Robert Green was the man in possession when James was out of the picture.

Then you have the two first-choice left backs unavailable, with Ashley Cole injured and Wayne Bridge ruling himself out, right back Glen Johnson crocked and captain Rio Ferdinand also missing.

That means that the only member of Capello's strongest backline starting tonight is the out-of-form John Terry, who will probably be partnered by either Matthew Upson or Joleon Lescott, two players who have both come in for plenty of criticism this season.

England's last eight home games have featured over 2.5 goals - that trend is [1.9] to continue - while five have had over 3.5, which is [3.35]. Our favoured score pick is 3-1 at [14.5], though 2-1 is also an attractive option at [9.4].

African Nations top-scorer Mohamed "Geddo" Nagy, who struck as a substitute in every game in Angola, is [7.0] to grab a goal, while Wayne Rooney's blistering form means that he is just a [2.06] shout. Terry is [25.0] to instantly get the fans back on side with the opener, while Rooney is [4.4].

Finally, there may be some value in England recording a half-time/full-time double at [2.2], having done so in each of their last six at Wembley. Four of those were 1-0 at the interval, which is [3.6].

England v Egypt
Kick-off: 8pm
Live coverage on ITV1

What are you backing in tonight's big match? Let us know in the space below...

Published: 3 Mar 2010 - Tags: Fabio Capello , John Terry , Mohamed Nagy , Wayne Rooney