Back Colchester to reign in the Essex mud

Barely a blade of grass can be seen at Colchester's Weston Homes Community Stadium, after a drainage problem has allowed the relentless rain to do its worst. So while Southend might be able to boast Arsenal starlet Sanchez Watt in their team for the first time tonight, it'll be one of few comparisons tonight to the sort of football on show at the Emirates.

In other words, it's going to be an old-fashioned derby scrap, with even Colchester boss Aidy Boothroyd admitting that it'll be a "throw-back to the seventies". His side are making a quiet case for promotion from League One, creeping up to the big-name trio of Norwich, Leeds and Charlton in fourth place.

A win tonight would see them go three points behind Charlton in third, with one game in hand, and would send their old pals Southend further into the relegation mix - they lie 17th, just two points from the drop. Colchester have lost just once in their last 11 home games, while the Shrimpers have lost ten from their last 11.

So all signs point to the home victory, which explains the short odds of [1.64] for Colchester to win, with Southend at [6.0] and the draw [4.2]. But we don't think the Us will have it all their own way, last season they lost at home 1-0, and only narrowly won 2-1 in the corresponding fixture in December. With local pride still counting for a lot and the marshy conditions acting as a leveller, we fancy this to be decided by the one goal.

It means the under 1.5 goals at [3.9] is a great price, while Colchester 1-0 is [7.8] and draw/Colchester in the half time/full time market is [4.9]. And with 11 goals to his name this season, Kevin Lisbie is the man to back to score when the odds become available.

Colchester v Southend
Kick-off: 7.45pm
Live coverage on Sky Sports 1

Which way to you think the Essex derby will be going? Let us know below...

Published: 8 Feb 2010 - Tags: Aidy Boothroyd, Kevin Lisbie, Sanchez Watt